NZ Economy Explorer
CA = saving − investment: solid lines are 2015–26 history, dashed lines are your scenario to 2030. Details below the charts.
Current account = national saving − investment, by definition. A persistent deficit is balanced either by (1) higher household mortgage debt, driven in NZ by high immigration, or by (2) higher saving, meaning weaker demand and higher unemployment. The charts show which path NZ has taken since 2015 (solid lines) and which one your scenario implies to 2030 (dashed lines). Housing credit growth fell from 12.1% (Jul 2021) to 2.9% (Nov 2023) and is back at 5.4% (Sep 2026). Unemployment has kept rising through 2025–26.
Which path balances the identity?
Path 1 means debt/GDP rose 0.5pp or more while unemployment was flat or falling. Path 2 means debt/GDP was flat or falling while unemployment rose 0.2pp or more.
What the data says: path 1 (debt) dominated to 2022, path 2 (unemployment) took over in 2023–24, and both have operated in 2025–26. House prices track mortgage credit closely. The migration-to-house-price link is weak in this window, though strong in longer RBNZ studies. Real wages fell in 2026 as CPI ran ahead of wages. Counterpoint: the housing link is strong because zoning and infrastructure ration supply. With freer supply, migration would mean more building, not more leverage.
Model assumptions (advanced)
These are the elasticities behind the dashed lines. Each shows its source or method and a confidence label: high, medium or low.
Equations
Full thesis check and latest data
Sources and gaps
This is a scenario model, not a forecast or financial advice. The data is refreshed by nz/build.py.